Models for forecasting electricity consumption and supply by renewable energy producers

Purpose

Creation of models and computer programmes for short-term forecasting of electricity consumption and electricity output by producers from renewable energy sources.

Tasks

Development of models and computer programmes for short-term forecasting of electricity consumption and electricity supply by renewable energy producers, as well as models for assessing the independent participation of renewable energy producers in the wholesale electricity market, creation of new balancing groups of renewable energy producers and other electricity market participants

Description

Today’s urgent task is to improve the accuracy of forecasting electricity consumption and electricity supply by renewable energy producers, which will reduce the volume and cost of electricity imbalances created by them.
The project aims to develop models and computer programs for short-term forecasting based on artificial neural networks and pilot operation of such models.
In addition, renewable energy producers have economic incentives to move to new forms of participation in the electricity market and leave the balancing group of the State Enterprise Guaranteed Buyer, and other electricity market participants have incentives to create balancing groups to reduce the volume and cost of their imbalances.
An approach has been developed to reduce the cost of forecast errors of balancing groups by calculating correction factors to forecast schedules used to adjust bids for the sale of electricity by balancing group members based on forecast data, which can be applied and refined individually for a particular balancing group. In the event of the formation of a new balancing group, it is possible to reduce the total cost of forecasts by coordinating the trading strategies of the participants. Modelling the operation of such a group and its market participation tactics is a separate task that requires further research for specific participants and based on the data provided by them.

Fields of prospective use

Electric power industry

Potential stakeholders

State Enterprise “Guaranteed Buyer”. Renewable energy producers

Budget

Required: 2.5M ₴

Inquired: 0M ₴

Workplace creation potential: <10

Possible sources of funding

Investor funds; grants; funds from international organisations

Website

https://ied.org.ua/